As usual, the Caps are doing just enough to keep my hopes up so that I’ll be disappointed.

Our friends Abbi and Matt got to watch this phenomenon firsthand during the ACC basketball tournament, where VT was leading the entire game only to lose in the last second.  The whole game I stayed detached, expecting UNC to win at any given point in time.  With five minutes left in the game, I was still very convinced we’d lose.  With two minutes and an eight point lead, I started to think – “hey, maybe…” With one minute it was close and I started to believe!  With 0.8 seconds, we were losing.  And then I spent the afternoon being pissed at myself for believing we could ever win.

The Caps were dead in the water starting at Thanksgiving, and with the coaching change at that time have been one of the best teams in hockey since.  The only problem was that they went ahead and lost most of their games, if not just about all of them in October and November to that point.  So they’ve been digging out of a hole ever since.

They’re perilously close to that eighth (or third!) playoff spot.  They’re 8-2-0 in the last 10, and past that they’re showing a strong 75% winning average.  The problem is that all of the teams they are chasing refuse to lose.  So they’re getting lots of points and wins, but not gaining any ground.  The problem was a few weeks ago when I started to believe they could catch division leading Carolina.  They still can, but it requires the Caps to win their next three games, and for Carolina to lose two of their next three.  That seems more likely than Philadelphia or Boston phoning it in.  It’s unlikely.

And, even if the Caps do make the playoffs, they’ll probably face the Penguins, whom I believe the Capitals always lose to in the playoffs.

The Caps play Carolina on Tuesday night.  If they win, they’re still alive.  If they lose, they’re done.  It’s that simple.  So hopefully they lose, and I can go on and watch the Rockies start by losing every game in March and April, only to have an improbable chance of postseason baseball, but enough of a chance that I might believe they can make it.

But I still think they can do it.  So they won’t! When will I learn?